SPY has extended its recovery to $701.66, adding another dollar to yesterday’s $700.65 close and now sitting 10.7% above the March 30 correction low of $634. The composite holds steady at +53 RISK ON with the VIX declining to 17.5 and the RSI easing to 83.8. The short-term remains at +80 RISK ON with 79% of stocks above their 20-day moving averages. The medium-term holds at +8 CHOP with 57% above the 50-day MA. The long-term is at +67 RISK ON with 55% above the 200-day MA. The sector count remains at 6 RISK ON — though Energy has slipped from RISK ON to CHOP — with Utilities now claiming the top spot at +55.

Sector Leadership

6 sectors RISK ON, 5 CHOP, 0 RISK OFF — Energy rotates out of RISK ON:

💡 What We’re Watching

• SPY extends past $700 to $701.66 — The S&P 500 has added another dollar to yesterday’s close, now trading at $701.66 and representing a 10.7% gain from the March 30 correction low of $634. This is the second consecutive session above $700 and the highest close of the recovery.
• VIX declines to 17.5, RSI eases to 83.8 — The VIX has dropped from 18.8 to 17.5, moving closer to the sub-15 levels associated with calm market conditions. The RSI has eased from 84 to 83.8, still deeply overbought but pulling back slightly from yesterday’s extreme reading.
• Utilities surge to claim the top sector spot — Utilities have jumped from +46 to +55, overtaking Comm Services (+53) and Tech (+49) for sector leadership. The medium-term score has strengthened to +55 from previously lower readings, adding balance to the sector’s risk profile alongside its strong long-term score of +80.
• Energy slips from RISK ON to CHOP — Energy has dropped from +33 RISK ON to +27 CHOP, with the short-term score falling to -85. Only 11% of Energy stocks are above their 20-day moving averages, despite 100% remaining above the 200-day MA. This is the first sector to exit RISK ON since the recovery began.
• Technology remains at 52-week high — Tech’s ST score remains at +95 with the sector at its 52-week high and outperforming SPY by +3.3% over the past 20 days. The sector continues to lead alongside Comm Services and now sits just behind the Utilities-led top tier.

The Bottom Line

SPY’s extension to $701.66 marks the second consecutive close above $700 and the highest point of the recovery. The composite holds at +53 with 6 of 11 sectors in RISK ON and zero in RISK OFF. Liquidity conditions remain supportive with the VIX declining to 17.5 and approaching the sub-15 calm-market threshold.

In our view, the sector rotation that has occurred over the past 24 hours is worth monitoring. Energy’s exit from RISK ON — the first sector to do so since the recovery began — represents a potential shift in near-term momentum for what had been one of the recovery’s steadiest performers. At the same time, Utilities’ surge to the top spot reflects continued defensive positioning even as growth sectors like Tech and Comm Services hold strong.

The RSI at 83.8 remains deeply overbought, though the slight pullback from yesterday’s 84 reading may suggest the pace of the rally is moderating. The medium-term score at +8 has not yet returned to RISK ON — a sustained move above +30 would signal a more durable shift in the intermediate-term trend.

The combination of SPY at new recovery highs, declining volatility, and broad sector participation suggests the recovery remains intact. The rotation within sector leadership and the first sector exit from RISK ON are developments we will continue to monitor as the intermediate-term trend evolves.